Australian DER pathway model
Battery Now vs Wait for V2G
Compare two simple household pathways over up to 15 years: solar with a home battery now, or solar with an EV now and V2G later.
Discounted cumulative payoff
Present-value payoff in AUD. Year 0 includes upfront costs.
Battery-now end value
$9,350
Wait-for-V2G end value
$22,179
Gap at horizon
$12,829
Positive gap means wait-for-V2G is better.
Crossover year
None
Based on discounted payoff.
Assumptions
This is a simplified directional model. It treats costs and benefits as annual cash flows and discounts them back to today.
Real outcomes depend on tariffs, export limits, driving behaviour, V2G availability, battery degradation, and the household load shape.
The wait-for-V2G path keeps the home battery spend available on day 1 and earns HISA interest on that preserved capital until V2G hardware is purchased.
Energy benefits grow at the chosen annual rate. V2G hardware cost declines each year until the selected start year.